🌟 Editor's Note
Welcome to the first issue of the Midweek Breakdown, currently things are in a bit of a whirl, the federal government has shutdown due to an impasse on congressional spending. When this will be resolved is still unclear. In other news, check out the big movers with earnings reports and more down below. As always, thank you for being a subscriber to The Amateur Investor. Happy Reading!
Government Shutdown as Q3 Closes Strong
September 29- 20, 2025
📉🗓️ TL;DR
Markets posted modest gains to close Q3 despite looming government shutdown risks, with the S&P 500 advancing to 6,685 (+0.36% Monday). Technology led with the Nasdaq up 11% for the quarter, while energy stocks plunged nearly 2% on OPEC concerns. The midnight Tuesday deadline for government funding dominated sentiment, though historical data shows the S&P 500 averages no change during shutdowns. Key catalysts included surprisingly strong Pending Home Sales (+4.0% vs. +0.2% expected) and the $55 billion Electronic Arts buyout. With the S&P 500 up 13% YTD and September delivering its best performance in 15 years, markets appear resilient heading into the potential shutdown.
📊 Market Pulse
Index Performance:
S&P 500: 6,685 (+0.36% Monday), up 13% YTD
Nasdaq: Up 5.3% for September, +11% for Q3, +17% YTD
Dow Jones: Mixed trading, up 9% YTD
Russell 2000: Significantly underperforming large-caps
Key Developments:
September defying typical weakness - best performance in 15 years
Trading volumes moderate ahead of shutdown deadline
Technology and consumer discretionary leading; energy worst performer
International markets flat, providing no directional catalyst
TLDR: Q3 ended with gains despite shutdown fears; tech leadership intact.
🏭 Sector Performance
Winners:
Technology (XLK): +0.8% Monday
Nvidia rebounded ~2%, Micron surged 4%
Electronic Arts jumped 4.5% on $55B buyout
Consumer Discretionary (XLY): +0.2% Monday
EA deal boosting M&A sentiment
Nike earnings after close watched closely
Losers:
Energy (XLE): -1.8% Monday
Crude oil down to $62.58/barrel
Exxon down 1.6% plus 2,000 job cuts
OPEC production increase fears
Financials (XLF): -0.5% Monday
Regional banks weak on rate cut expectations
TLDR: Tech strength continues; energy plunges on oil weakness.
📈 Major Movers
Top Gainers:
Electronic Arts: +4.5% Monday - $55B buyout, largest LBO ever
Micron Technology: +4% - Memory chip optimism
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics: -89% - Phase 3 trial failure
Carnival: -4% - Weak forward guidance despite Q3 beat
Key Earnings:
Nike: Reporting after Monday close
Expected EPS: $0.27 (-61% YoY)
Expected Revenue: $11B (-5% YoY)
M&A Highlights:
Genmab/Merus: $8B biotech acquisition
CSX: CEO change, stock up 3-5%
TLDR: Record M&A activity and biotech volatility dominate individual moves.
📅💵 Economic Data and Fed Policy
Key Data:
Pending Home Sales: +4.0% vs +0.2% expected - strongest in 5 months
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: -8.7 - sharp deterioration
Fed Outlook:
Current rate: 4.00-4.25% (cut Sept 17)
90% probability of October cut
Next FOMC: October 28-29
Critical: Shutdown could delay jobs report, complicating Fed decisions
TLDR: Housing beats while manufacturing weakens; Fed data availability at risk.
📊 Commodities Snapshot
Oil: $62.58/barrel (-1.38%), forecast $59 in Q4
Gold: Record $3,833/oz (+1.72%) on safe-haven demand
Natural Gas: +2.07% to $3.27/MMBtu
💡Forward Outlook
Immediate Catalysts:
Government shutdown resolution (midnight Tuesday deadline)
Friday jobs report (if government open)
Nike earnings implications
Key Themes:
Shutdown Impact: Historical data shows minimal market effect, but permanent layoffs would be unprecedented
AI Trade: Technology resilience despite prior week skepticism
Energy Weakness: OPEC oversupply concerns growing
Risk Factors:
Extended shutdown delaying economic data
Manufacturing weakness spreading
Energy sector vulnerability
Technical Levels:
S&P 500 resistance: 6,700
S&P 500 support: 6,600
Bottom Line: Markets showing resilience with strong YTD gains despite shutdown uncertainty. History suggests minimal impact if resolved quickly, but permanent federal layoffs and data delays pose new risks. Technology leadership and M&A momentum provide support while energy weakness bears monitoring.
Till next time,